Curse

BloodBrooder · Apr 14, 2006, 04:02 PM // 16:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poison Ivy

Selling for a higher price then most people and trying to make more profit isn't scamming, otherwise I'd have my account banned already.

I'm not saying that selling for a higher price is scamming i am saying selling something for 2k more then its worth to a noobie is wrong. that was just my point

MelechRic · Apr 14, 2006, 04:11 PM // 16:11

A couple of people have already mentioned this in the thread, but I'm going to reiterate it and add to it.

Chinese sweatshop farmers are trying to inflate prices.

It's not uncommon in Lion's Arch/Droknar's Forge when you advertise "WTB: Zealous String" to get a PM'd by up to 5 sweatshop farmers offering to sell you one for 30k.

Why this concerted effort to inflate prices on seemingly common and inexpensive items? My theory is that the most recent farming nerfs have actually hit the sweatshop owners in the pocket books. They are seeing a decline in their overall profits. Since Troll farming in Talus isn't that profitable (1-2k/half hour) these guys are are seeing that they need to get bigger sweatshop armies in order to keep their incomes. The trouble is that a bigger sweatshop army eats into your margins. So how else do you keep those margins fat? You manipulate the market for items and mods. By artificially trying to inflate prices they can actually get more in-game gold.

Basically the amount of in-game gold a sweatshop army generates is directly proportional to the profits the sweatshop owner sees on eBay.

Just a theory.

EDIT: The other thing it could be is just an end-game/mature-game economy. A lot of newer players arriving with freshly purchased eBay gold. They don't want to play through the game to get all the gear so they pay to be run to Droks. They have a 1000 plat and want to spend it. That will inflate prices. In fact, I sold a Razorstone and Tanzit's Defender to a level 4 Wa/Mo two nights ago. He was in full Glad's armor too. He just wanted them because they looked cool and didn't haggle at all. Then he asked me if he should put points in Axe Mastery to use the Razorstone.

Thallandor · Apr 14, 2006, 04:37 PM // 16:37

All this manipulation of the market items prices are due to the nature of the poor trade system in the game for a whole year..... If an Auction House is implemented trade scams/manipulation would cease to exist as players can see for themselves in plain sight the average sellable prices for the said items as there will be always people who will ask less than market value to sell their wares fast and enough people are doing it, it will lower the overall price of the said item. Those who choose to manipulation the trade system would find it impossible since overpriced items wont move and will only merely serve as amusement to players.

This is one of the advantage of the AH but seening Factions is around the corner, having it anytime soon seems impossible unless its an added feature with faction.

Let us not forget that it will also reduce the amount of trade spams in the local channel. The trade channel currently cant cope with the seer volume and this problem has been unfixed since it became a problem long time ago.

on topic to the OP, i share your pain with these sharks who try to scam you for unrealistic amount of gold for an item and if you refuse they attack you verbally calling you a noob, mofo some things along the line.....they should be banned along with scammers selling accounts for ingame gold (possibly hacked).

MelechRic · Apr 14, 2006, 04:52 PM // 16:52

^^ I completely agree.

What we have is a very inefficient market. It's inefficient because the flow of information is broken. Either you sit and try to watch Local/Trade spam stream by hoping to see an item you want, or you come here (guru) to find out what it's worth. It shouldn't have to be that way.

Count to Potato · Apr 14, 2006, 05:39 PM // 17:39

Very smart marketers are in Guildwars, just need commericals now rather than spamming

leprekan · Apr 14, 2006, 05:40 PM // 17:40

No offense to guru ... but guru is a GUIDE not the market. Ask any seller that is honest in LA (considering half of LA is members of the high end sales section of guru) the last thing they care about is someone saying "guru says it costs x". Prices are set by the market in game not here. As with any market an items value is determined by one thing ... what someone will pay for it. If the "Chinese farmers" are trying to inflate the price don't buy. If enough people follow suit the price drops to about where it was before the markup.

What I see driving prices up more than anything is the game itself. GW is definitely in need of an infusion of new people to the game. A closed system can only absorb so many items. Fewer people buying means an increase in prices to compensate for fewer sales.

fiery · Apr 14, 2006, 05:41 PM // 17:41

I seen some people actually selling black dye for 18 k saying that it will rise that high soon. I laughed.

BloodBrooder · Apr 14, 2006, 05:53 PM // 17:53

Quote:

What I see driving prices up more than anything is the game itself. GW is definitely in need of an infusion of new people to the game. A closed system can only absorb so many items. Fewer people buying means an increase in prices to compensate for fewer sales.

I find though just having new guild members, who have just bought the game that they are finding it impossible to get anything good, good armour, weapons because the prices are just too high. Now, i am talking they are finding it hard to do without farming. Because alot of them don't want to resort to farming. I completely argee with your point, but what i am saying even with a stream of new people i don't think the prices would go down i think people would just go without like they are now. I know i would like to have a sup vigor and absorbtion and 15k armour for my warrior but thats not going to happen anytime soon lol. I doubt without farming..actually i know without farming i'll never reach the 100k mark and thats kinda sad.

tcassa · Apr 14, 2006, 06:05 PM // 18:05

" A closed system can only absorb so many items. Fewer people buying means an increase in prices to compensate for fewer sales."

/quote

That goes against the fundamentals of economics though. Lesser demand does not increase price mark up. If demand is down than price should be down. Because the less an item sells, the higher the supply and the lower the price.

But I do see your point as a seller, you would want to raise your price to cover selling fewer units. You are no longer selling in volume.

I just think there are groups out there trying to manipulate the market, get everybody to think it is "normal" to pay 20K for a zealous mod, or whatever.

leprekan · Apr 14, 2006, 06:05 PM // 18:05

Aside from runes (sup vig etc) the game can be done with collector items. Sup vigor is dirt cheap now. I remember when sup vig started at 100k and went to highest bidder. I don't see Anet doing much of anything about the trade system since they made it so people can do it with collector items. The items for sale in LA/Droks etc are vanity items. New players to the game should have to do some work to be able to afford the high end items in the game. If they got it ALL easily and quickly the game would have very goals to achieve in a short amount of time. The story line grows very old very fast so it comes down to a treasure hunt with time.

MelechRic · Apr 14, 2006, 06:28 PM // 18:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by tcassa

I just think there are groups out there trying to manipulate the market, get everybody to think it is "normal" to pay 20K for a zealous mod, or whatever.

The manipulation is being achieved through the fundamental lack of information that is available to the average consumer in-game. Most newer players don't know what things should cost and how scarce or plentiful certain items are. Add to this the fact that many newer players get run through the game and have very little PvE experience and you've got a major problem.

Think about it from the Chinese sweatshop owner's perspective: What's his incentive? To maximize the uptake of in-game gold and it's sale on eBay. How do you do this? You inflate prices. This has two benefits for you. It means that in order to afford things people that buy eBay gold will have to buy more of it. It also means that with your army of farmers the steady stream of items/item mods that you get will translate into more in-game gold. That's gold you can then sell on eBay.

Very much a vicious cycle of inflation.

I'm not sure if an Auction House in-game would really combat this. The trouble is that you would have all kinds of shill bidding done by the farmers to inflate prices. The reality is that even legitimate sellers would get their items bid up just to keep things slanted in the sweatshop farmer's favor.

Would preventing running to Drok's solve the problem? Probably not. Sure newer players wouldn't have access to Drok's armor, but they'd still be able to buy high end weapons from places like Ascalon and Lion's Arch. A level requirement on weapons might solve this, but ANet has been reluctant to do that. (Especially since Attribute points are so central to the game's mechanics.)

Ultimately the real problem is that there isn't any new content. People's energies go into accumlation when they don't have any other thing to do. Factions will fix this and I believe there will be a big correction in the pricing of items. People will be out exploring and finding new items that they simply prefer to the old content's items. Will these new items inflate in value? Yes, that's a given. Hopefully ArenaNet will provide another chapter by the time that happens. If we see new content every six months then we won't have the issue that we're having with our currrent year-old content.

The other thing we can hope for is that ANet has learned from their past mistakes with Prophecies. Each future chapter should be better in terms of content and implementation.

EDIT: Real world example: DeBeers and diamonds. Those clear little rocks are not scarce nor are the very valuable. Yet, with clever marketing (control of information) and control of supply (artificially created scarcity) diamonds are incredibly expensive. The same tactic is possible within Guild Wars on a small scale.

BloodBrooder · Apr 14, 2006, 06:45 PM // 18:45

very true leprekan. For most of the game i do use collector items. But i have beaten the game a few times and i would like better weapons for my chars. Ususally anything really good i find in a mission or whatever i see if any of my friends need it and usually give it to them, helping people out

Str0b0 · Apr 14, 2006, 06:54 PM // 18:54

Our guild does not trade amongst ourselves however I've never bothered to trade in game. I use the auctions here. I've never had a bad experience and the prices are fair.

Cherno · Apr 14, 2006, 07:15 PM // 19:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by leprekan

Fewer people buying means an increase in prices to compensate for fewer sales.

Wrong. Fewer people buying means that prices need to lower to up the incentive to buy, thus overstock. You put things on clearance pricing to get rid of them. Fewer items available = higher prices due to scarcity. Look at ecto for example.

There is a difference in using guru (or other sites) as a guide and living by the price.

When bulwarks were new guru had them at ~100K +10 ecto. Watching the active market shows what the market will tolerate. You can't sell at that price, you lower it, a little based on what the active buyers are wanting to buy at, finding a happy medium.

There is a great difference between seeing buying a defense mod for 5K and 60K. An updated guide, that is updated by sellers and buyers, isn't going to have that much of a delta. Especially when I go to a different district and get it for the price. Also, when I question the seller at 60 and he within three haggling attempts comes down to 10K in an offer shows he is trying to inflate the price substantially.

The price for this item could easily creep up to 5-10 as long as people take them up on their "final" haggling offer. Then the cycle repeats as the seller has a new baseline to work from.

leprekan · Apr 14, 2006, 07:28 PM // 19:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by MelechRic

I'm not sure if an Auction House in-game would really combat this. The trouble is that you would have all kinds of shill bidding done by the farmers to inflate prices. The reality is that even legitimate sellers would get their items bid up just to keep things slanted in the sweatshop farmer's favor.

Short of having Anet solve Third world poverty issues ... the sweat shops aren't going anywhere.

An auction house would be GREAT! It would also be the death of GW. Look at rune prices after they put a rune trader in. If ALL prices across the board dropped and things had next to no value BAM instant 2 classes rich and dirt poor for life. Having trouble getting that FOW armor? What if a 30 pommel was suddenly only worth 10k? How many 30 pommels do you get a month (more like 6 months)? What would a 29 be worth then or a 28? Food for thought ... if you were able to easily reach every goal (items,fow etc) how long would you consider this game fun to play? People need to look at the big picture not the short term woes.

leprekan · Apr 14, 2006, 07:47 PM // 19:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cherno

Wrong. Fewer people buying means that prices need to lower to up the incentive to buy, thus overstock. You put things on clearance pricing to get rid of them. Fewer items available = higher prices due to scarcity. Look at ecto for example.

We are talking Walmart and Rolls Royce here. A 30 pommel is Rolls Royce a 20 is Walmart. The prices will always reflect this. There are considerably fewer PERFECT upgrades/items than non perfects. This is the market segment I am talking about. People will ALWAYS want that 30 pommel if they can get it and the price will ALWAYS reflect that. 30 pommels and other perfect items are NOT common drops. There isn't an "overstock" issue with them ever. When was the last time Rolls Royce had a "clearance sale"? If demand drops they will and do raise their price since they are catering to a select few.

Cymboric Treewalker · Apr 14, 2006, 08:12 PM // 20:12

Auction houses would help alot - especially if it was like the ones in WoW. The auction house in WoW took a commission so there would be no buying your own mates stuff to set the price high... you would lose money.

Cymboric Treewalker · Apr 14, 2006, 08:15 PM // 20:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by leprekan

Short of having Anet solve Third world poverty issues ... the sweat shops aren't going anywhere.

An auction house would be GREAT! It would also be the death of GW. Look at rune prices after they put a rune trader in. If ALL prices across the board dropped and things had next to no value BAM instant 2 classes rich and dirt poor for life. Having trouble getting that FOW armor? What if a 30 pommel was suddenly only worth 10k? How many 30 pommels do you get a month (more like 6 months)? What would a 29 be worth then or a 28? Food for thought ... if you were able to easily reach every goal (items,fow etc) how long would you consider this game fun to play? People need to look at the big picture not the short term woes.

An auction house would not ensure that items were in stock... they would have to come from the players...

Players would NOT sell to the vendor, but auction it to other players... not as bad as you make it out to be.

Mandy Memory · Apr 14, 2006, 08:17 PM // 20:17

There are a number of guilds that are trying to control the economy now. Ive noticed a few of them.

leprekan · Apr 14, 2006, 08:42 PM // 20:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cymboric Treewalker

An auction house would not ensure that items were in stock... they would have to come from the players...

Players would NOT sell to the vendor, but auction it to other players... not as bad as you make it out to be.

Over time it would balance out just as the rune trader did. Who do you think stocks the rune trader now? Still happy to get a major rune or even 90% of the superiors? What would a 10/9 sundering hilt be worth if 10 thousand people had an easy way to sell it all of a sudden? Be realistic ... not even a tenth of marketable items even come to market at this point because the trade system is a pain in the butt. If that were suddenly not the case what would happen to prices?